Your Edge is in the Past
This article was motivated by a poll I started a Twitter as follows:
There were 552 votes, 44% chose present time, 42% chose the future and only 14% chose the past.
Now, the poll was ambiguous; what do we mean going to the past or future? Go there in your present form with your present knowledge, or reborn in a different time and start a new life. Apparently of 552 voters no one asked the question. This is probably because everyone assumed their perception of the question was the right one. But it makes a huge difference. Below is why but first let us talk briefly about time.
No one knows what is time. No scientist, no philosopher and no layman can answer the question: What is time? Time is a subject of metaphysics. Modern science, just in many other areas, has resorted to a cyclical definition:
Time is what clocks measure
A clock measures time so time is what clocks measure. Modern science often shamefully hides behind cyclical arguments what it cannot explain while arguing that it has no connection to metaphysics. Apparently, although modern science has contributed to technological progress, its foundation is metaphysical and this is puzzling but beyond the scope of this article. It is a paradox that may never get solved.
Time may be an illusion or a fundamental quantity of the universe.We just do not know because we have no knowledge of the ontology of reality.
Case 1: You can go back or forward in time while maintaining your present state
In this case in the future you have no edge because you lack knowledge that has been accumulated in the meantime. You will look and sound like an idiot and probably an insane person. You will probably not be able to live in 2300, not even in 2150.
In the past you have a huge edge. You know things that have occurred and can develop a small edge by designing a few simple tools or even speculate in one of the three market bubbles of that century, get our before they burst, and live a comfortable life unless you get ill and you die because there is no modern medication but only something like homeopathy. But only in the past you have an edge.
Unless you belong to the 1%, you have no edge in the present. I would go anytime to 1700s with current state if I even if I knew I risked a shorter life. My current knowledge could help me shape the future. By the way it is possible that the future affects the past more than the past affects the future. It sounds crazy but it could be the case.
Summary: Your edge is in the past, you probably have no edge in present time and none in the future.
Case 2: Reborn from start in a different time
In this case the optimal solution is to stay at present time. The future may be too risky or even unbearable, for example machines ruling people, and in the past you may end up a slave of some Tyrant. Therefore, the results of the poll reflect correctly the optimal solutions even if some people assumed case 1. Where there is error is in the votes for future time selection. Basic risk considerations rule out unknown conditions. Some assume people will live forever in 2300 but since machines will dominate maybe people will have a forced short life, like terminated in their 40s to avoid overpopulation and conserve resources. It is also unlikely that space travel will ever become possible because the restrictions set by physics rule it out (see Rocket Equation.) In addition space is much more hostile for life than many people realize.
All of the above points are of course debatable. But in my opinion, staying at present time or going back if you are brave are the two feasible solutions. The future is not a solution. Edges exist in present time or in the past. You probably have no edge in the future.
About the author: Michael Harris is a trader and best selling author with interests in quantitative market analysis, machine learning, science and philosophy. Click here for more.
