Eight Years of Blogging And Tweeting — What Have I learned?

  • The intolerance of minorities and how they are shaping policies in democratic societies at the expense and detriment of the silent majority. I had a feeling about this but never been able to realize it before I read Taleb.
  • The importance of fat tails and the silliness of naive statistics. For example Ebola virus did not kill millions because we spent a lot of money to prevent that. It is silly to say that Ebola kills less people than cars do. Only imbeciles will say that. Same for terrorism. Governments spend billions to prevent terror attacks. Only an imbecile will claim that more people get killed falling from ladders than from terrorists especially given the fact that the latter could kill millions at a time. Terrorism has tail risk.
  • Maybe the most important for finance: You will never realize the expected alpha. If the probability of ruin is not zero, investors at some point will hit uncle point. I had a vague conception of this but Taleb helped to transform it to understanding.

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Quant trader, blogger, trading book author and developer of DLPAL machine learning software. No investment advice. #trading #finance Website

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Michael Harris

Michael Harris

Quant trader, blogger, trading book author and developer of DLPAL machine learning software. No investment advice. #trading #finance Website

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